I’ve been publishing some rather optimistic and good columns because October, a serious contrast to the negativism I was exuding last May in explaining why I estimated an important industry correction throughout summer time months.

There undoubtedly has been reason for confidence because October.

It wasn’t exactly that the inventory industry was planning to enter their conventional positive period, and was coming off an important correction reduced that had the S&P 500 down 20% on October 3. It was that it was start to look like the economy was recovering after its stumble in the first half the year.

Since it has turned out, not only did the financial recovery resume in October from their first half slowdown, however, many surprising knowledge has turn out regarding the entire 3-year recovery from the ‘Good Recession’, knowledge that’s in sharp contrast to the gloom and doom projections therefore popular in 2008 and 2009 (which even continued in some quarters this year and 2011).

I observed a few of the good surprises a few days ago, including that a lot of the highly criticized relief loans to banks and the automobile business have been compensated back, with curiosity, and that the U.S. automobile business is well back on their wheels. For instance, only four years after its bankruptcy, Common Motors has regained their top whilst the top-selling car-maker in the world. In other knowledge, the Federal Arrange has even made profits, exceeding $155 thousand, to date on the ‘toxic’ resources it transferred from the books of banks to a unique books, and on the Treasury securities it ordered in their two models of quantitative easing.

I also observed the Financial Occasions report that since the start of the worldwide recovery production employment has grown quicker in the U.S. than in any other primary created economy, with more net production jobs having been included in the U.S. since the start of 2010 compared to the rest of the Band of Eight created countries set together.

You can find other good statistics maybe not well known in the middle of the new focus on the danger in the Eurozone debt crisis.

For instance, S&P 500 earnings have improved 125% because the conclusion of 2009, their quickest expansion in a quarter century December Global Holidays. The end result is that even though the inventory industry has doubled because their 2009 reduced, the S&P 500 price/earnings percentage has dropped, presently at 13.7, below their long-term average of 16.4, leaving the S&P 500 possibly still selling at discount prices.

And of the $37 trillion of inventory industry valuation erased during the 2008-2009 financial meltdown and extreme tolerate industry, $24 trillion was already restored.

“Yes but,” the gloom and doomers claim, “think about the unhappy employment picture? You can’t have an financial recovery with therefore lots of people out of work.”

But how many realize what’s also occurred in the employment picture? As of the conclusion of the year, the unemployment rate had dropped from 9.8% (in 2010) to 8.5%.

Each monthly reduce was met with shock and claims that it was a one-month aberration due to periodic factors or whatever. Nevertheless the changes held coming.

December’s major escalation in new jobs was allegedly due to additional uses for the holiday looking period, which will be corrected in January. Actually, the agreement outlook of economists was that January would see only 121,000 new jobs created.

But whoa! The Work Department’s employment report on Friday showed that 243,000 jobs were created, dual the expectations. And more, the number of new jobs reported for Nov and December were modified up by yet another 60,000. And the unemployment rate dropped again, from 8.5% in December to 8.3% in January. A different report on Thursday showed that new applications for unemployment benefits have fallen to their next cheapest level because August, 2008.

Not that employment is back to their pre-recession levels. You can find still 12.8 million people looking for function, and while an unemployment rate of 8.3% is superior to 9.8%, unemployment averaged only 5.4% in the ten years prior to the recession (and 5.7% during the last 60 years). Nevertheless the trend remains in the best direction.

And we have to realize that employment is really a lagging indicator. Employers don’t begin choosing again until the economy has recovered enough they can’t match need without introducing workers. So in that respect the increasing traction in the jobs picture may show the recovery is more along than previously thought.

That could have implications that the Given is behind the bend (again) in stating a week ago that it will likely hold curiosity charges near zero till late 2014, instead of their prior goal of 2013. But that’s still another subject.

Meanwhile, as will be estimated, the inventory industry reacted very really to Friday’s jobs report, tacking on still more increases in their move off their October 3 low.

A word of warning for folks who are not already in the market and might be tempted to jump entirely hog only at that point.

As my members know, for many years I’ve known the monthly jobs report as ‘The Huge One’ ;.That’s because it’s so very hard to estimate that it usually comes in with a shock in a single way or the other. That in turn usually results in a kneejerk effect by the marketplace that produces a anyone to three-day triple-digit shift by the Dow in the way of the surprise. One other part of the design is that the initial outsize reaction to the report is then often corrected around these times and the marketplace returns to normal.